A forensic engine for the story behind the price
Market Scholar treats a market narrative as something measurable. It reads the primary record, scores each claim, and resolves dozens of signals into a single verdict — with every number traceable to its source.
Ingest, audit, surface
Ingest
SEC filings, earnings, analyst coverage, options and short-interest data, and a 450K-article news corpus — normalized and time-stamped so analysis can’t peek at the future.
Audit
A scoring engine decomposes each narrative into claims and runs them against the disclosures, scoring verification, drift, coordination, authority, divergence and decay six times a day.
Surface
Results land in a search engine and a monitoring layer: look up any company for a verdict, or watch your universe for narratives turning against the filings.
What we measure
Verification Match (VMS)
0–100Decomposes a narrative into discrete claims and checks each against the structured data in the 10-K and 10-Q. A high score means the story is literally true to the filings — which is not the same as the story being safe.
Epistemic Drift
0–100Measures the gap between what a narrative implies and what the disclosures actually support. Drift fires on selective framing and omission, not only on falsehood.
Coordination
class + scoreDetects orchestrated narratives from cross-source timing and phrasing — distinguishing organic spread from a campaign that arrived everywhere at once.
Source Authority (SRS)
0–100A forensic credibility score for each outlet, earned from its historical record of claims that later held up against the filings — not from brand or reach.
Fair-Value Divergence (FVD)
%How far price has run from a pure-fundamentals anchor built off the filings. A prudent reference point — not a price target, and never a sizing input.
Narrative Decay
half-lifePhysics-based modeling of a narrative’s energy: how long it persists and when it exhausts. Built on a decay framework, validated against forward structure.
A verdict, with its reasons
Every company resolves to one of a small set of forensic verdicts. The verdict is a summary — the components are the evidence.
Claims align with the filings and valuation divergence is contained.
Elevated structural pressure that has not yet resolved into a clean trap.
Price detached from fundamentals while claims still verify, with coordination present.
A coordination signature is present across sources.
The story has spent most of its energy.
No dominant signal. Tracked for changes.
A note on framing: the “Narrative Trap” verdict is valuation-anchored, not a fraud label — a high verification score means the claims check out. For falsity screening, read the components (drift, coordination, omission), not the headline verdict.
Patent-pending methods
Analyst Credibility Assessment
Multi-dimensional scoring of analyst and source claims against the primary record.
Narrative Lifecycle Tracking
Decay monitoring that models how a narrative loses energy over time.
Divergence Decoding
Inference-time temporal unlearning to prevent look-ahead bias in analysis.